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Teaching Professor, Economics Department
(E) maguilar at email dot unc dot edu
UNC Econ Office Hours end of Spring 2021: 4May2021 1:45PM-2:30PM & 10May2021 2:00PM-3:30PM
KFBS Office Hours: M,W 11:00AM-12:00PM | 22Mar2021-13May2021
Duke Office Hours: by appointment
All office hours held @ (ID: 494-763-4438)
CV | LinkedIn
Interests: Financial Economics

Student Advising

Fed ChallengeFiscal ChallengeQFE Credential Tar Heel Alpha
Info Session for Econ and Finance Related Clubs (28Jan2021)
Covid-19 Recession -- Presentation by UNC-CH Fed Challenge and Tarheel Alpha teams (16Apr2020)


Econ 290 - Excel for Economists (UNC Undergrad Econ)
Econ 420 - Intermediate Macroeconomic Theory (UNC Undergrad Econ)
Econ 425 - Financial Economics (UNC Undergrad Econ)
Econ 493 - Practicum in Quantitative Financial Economics (UNC Undergrad Econ)
Econ 525 - Advanced Financial Economics (UNC Undergrad Econ)
MAC 718 - Introduction to Finance (KFBS Masters of Accounting)
BUSI 786 - Quantitative Methods in Finance (KFBS Daytime MBA)
FUQINTRD 532Q - Capstone Faculty Adviser (Fuqua MQM)
MGRECON548Q - Empirical Economic Analysis (Fuqua MQM)

Research / Commentary

Portfolio Optimization Without Optimization (2021) - with A. Custovic. SSRN Top Ten List for Investment & Finance as of 06Feb2021, 16Feb2021, 16-17Mar2021, 30-31Mar2021
Macro Update - Q3`20, Presentation to Canadian Electric Association and Oracle (17Sep2020)
A Practical Method for Sharpening Estimates of Industry Equity Capital Costs (2020) - with B. Connolly and J. Li
Quantile Tracking Errors (QuTE) (2020) - with Ruyang Chengan and Anessa Custovic. Available at Epsilon Theory
The Impact of Internal Migration on Personal Loan Default in China (2020), with R. Chengan, N. Francis, and J. Xi
Is Geopolitical Risk Priced? (2018) - with L. McCallen
Should we be Worried About Inflation or Deflation?, with Zach Saunders, Seeking Alpha (May, 2018)
Crowdsourcing Economic Forecasts (2018) - with A. Custovic and A. Patel. SSRN Top Ten list for Production Forecasting 22-23Feb2021
The Dynamics of REIT Pricing Efficiency (2018) - with W. Boudry and R. Connolly - Real Estate Economics, Vol.46, Iss.1, pp251-283
Investment and Exit Timing by Private Equity Funds (2016) - with G. Brown and W. Hu
Bridging the Classroom Gap between Asset Pricing and Business Cycle Theory (2015) - with D. Soques, International Advances in Economic Research, Vol. 21, Iss.4, pgs 443-452;
The Fiscal Challenge - An experiential Exercise in Policy Making (2015) - with D. Soques, Journal of Economic Education, Vol. 46, Iss. 3, pgs 285-299
Robust Score and Pormanteau Tests of Volatility Spillover (2014) - with J. Hill Journal of Econometrics, Vol 184, Iss. 1, pgs 37-61
MacroJournal - Turning Students into Practitioners (2013) - with D. Soques The Journal of Economic Education, Vol. 44, Iss. 3
Moment Conditions Tests for Heavy Tailed Time Series - with J. Hill (2013) Journal of Econometrics: Annals Issue on Extreme Value Theory, Vol 172, Iss. 2, pgs 255-274
Fed Issued Floating Rate Notes - Another Arrow in the Quiver - with Sam Grote and Gabriel Tan, Seeking Alpha (Dec. 2012)
Information Arrivals, Frictions, and Volatility - with (2011) M. Ringgenberg. Funding sponsored by The Institute for Quantitative Research in Finance
A Latent Factor Model Of Multivariate Conditional Heteroscedasticity - (2009) Journal of Financial Econometrics, Vol 7., Iss. 4, pgs 481-503
A Moment Based Test Of GARCH Against Stochastic Volatility - with E. Renault (2008)